Global olive oil consumption will climb a further 3.2 percent in 2011/12, enough to soak up total production, forecast to be nearly 3.08 million tons, according to the International Olive Council’s November newsletter.
And that growth won’t come from the EU’s eight producer countries, because their overall consumption is falling. However, compared with 2008/09, olive oil consumption grew by 50 percent in China, 47 percent in Russia, 35 percent in Japan, 23 percent in Canada and 20 percent in Brazil last year.
Olive Oil Production
In its approved figures for 2009/10, the IOC reports that the crop year opened with 669,500 tons in global carry-over stocks and closed with 740,000 tons. World production reached 2.97 million tons, up 11.4 percent on the previous season. Of this, Spain produced 1.4 million tons, followed by Italy with 430,000 tons.
World production for 2010/11 is provisionally assessed at 3.018 million tons, up 1.5 percent, and forecast to rise another 3 percent in 2011/12.
Overall, the world consumed 2.90 million tones of olive oil in 2009/10 – a 2 percent increase on the season before and 5 percent higher than the average of the last four crop years. The EU/27 accounted for 64 percent of total consumption and the U.S. 9 percent.
Provisional figures suggest global consumption continues to increase, up 3 percent in 2010/11 to reach 2.98 million tons. Among IOC non-member countries, consumption growth this year is expected to total 8.5 percent, driven by the USA, China, Brazil and Canada.
World imports totalled 652,000 tons in 2009/10, of which the US took 40 percent , Brazil 8 percent, Canada and Japan 6 percent each, and China and Russia 3 percent each. Exports came to 653,000 tons, up 7 percent.
In the twelve-month from October to September this year, imports increased into Brazil (20 percent), Canada (5 percent) and the USA (7 percent) compared to the same period a year before, but fell 12 percent in Japan.
Data for Australia and the EU data were not yet available for September, but the figures for the first eleven months reveal a 9 percent drop in Australian imports and a 12 percent rise in EU imports.
Prices in Italy have recently fallen sharply after reaching a record of €3.92/kg in week 20 of the current production year. They have now plateaued at the same level they were from February to October 2010.