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A report pub­lished by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) this month warns of the con­se­quences of global warm­ing in the Asia Pacific region.

Titled ​“A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific,” the study is a col­lab­o­ra­tion between the Manila-based ADB and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

The ADB warned in a press state­ment that ​“the global cli­mate cri­sis is arguably the biggest chal­lenge human civ­i­liza­tion faces in the 21^st cen­tury, with the Asia and Pacific region at the heart of it all. Home to two-thirds of the world’s poor and regarded as one of the most vul­ner­a­ble regions to cli­mate change, coun­tries in Asia and the Pacific are at the high­est risk of plum­met­ing into deeper poverty — and dis­as­ter — if mit­i­ga­tion and adap­ta­tion efforts are not quickly and strongly imple­mented.”

The report cau­tions that progress made in eco­nomic devel­op­ment and improved liv­ing stan­dards in the region can be eas­ily undone if steps are not taken to curb emis­sions and depen­dence on fos­sil fuels. Without these changes, cli­mate change has the poten­tial to cause increas­ing tem­per­a­tures, a rise of the sea-level, dis­rup­tion in rain­fall pat­terns, and extreme weather pat­terns and floods across Asia. These effects can have human costs in the form of crop dam­age, strained liveli­hoods and the need for food imports.

The 131-page report starts with an intro­duc­tion to the Asia Pacific region and its geog­ra­phy, peo­ple and econ­omy as a back­ground to under­stand­ing the poten­tial impacts of cli­mate change on the region. This is fol­lowed by a sec­tion exam­in­ing these impacts, and specif­i­cally the changes in tem­per­a­tures, pre­cip­i­ta­tion, sea-level rise, hydrol­ogy, the inci­dence of cyclones, and flood­ing risks that can be expected. The last part cov­ers the human costs of cli­mate change and in par­tic­u­lar its impact on human health, urban areas, secu­rity, migra­tion and trade net­works.

The study con­cludes that even if the Paris tem­per­a­ture goals are met (i.e. by lim­it­ing global warm­ing to 1.5°C to 2°C), some ecosys­tems and socioe­co­nomic sec­tors in the region will still be affected, while no change at all will have severe effects on liveli­hoods, human health, migra­tion, and the poten­tial for con­flicts.

The pos­si­ble solu­tions sug­gested to mit­i­gate cli­mate change in the Asia Pacific region are those out­lined in the Paris Agreement. These include rapid decar­boniza­tion, adap­ta­tion mea­sures to pro­tect the most vul­ner­a­ble, projects focussing on renew­able energy, and inno­va­tion in infra­struc­ture and trans­port.

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, direc­tor of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the report’s co-author, cau­tioned that ​“The Asian coun­tries hold Earth’s future in their hands. If they choose to pro­tect them­selves against dan­ger­ous cli­mate change, they will help to save the entire planet. The chal­lenge is twofold. On the one hand, Asian green­house-gas emis­sions have to be reduced in a way that the global com­mu­nity can limit plan­e­tary warm­ing to well below 2 degrees Celsius, as agreed in Paris 2015.”

“Yet even adapt­ing to 1.5 degrees Celsius tem­per­a­ture rise is a major task,” Schellnhuber added. ​“So, on the other hand, Asian coun­tries have to find strate­gies for ensur­ing pros­per­ity and secu­rity under unavoid­able cli­mate change within a healthy global devel­op­ment. But note that lead­ing the clean indus­trial rev­o­lu­tion will pro­vide Asia with unprece­dented eco­nomic oppor­tu­ni­ties. And explor­ing the best strate­gies to absorb the shocks of envi­ron­men­tal change will make Asia a cru­cial actor in 21^st-cen­tury mul­ti­lat­er­al­ism.”

In an effort to com­bat cli­mate change in the region, the ADB ded­i­cated $3.7 bil­lion in 2016, an amount that will reach $6 bil­lion by 2020.

• Asian Development Bank