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Retail olive oil prices in Spain are expected to rise due to a pro­duc­tion decrease of 15.8 per­cent in Andalucia as a result of the droughts that affected the region this year.

The price for extra vir­gin olive oils at the ori­gin in Spain went from €3.70 per kilo­gram to €3.84 in mid-October. The Sistema de Información de Precios en Origen (POOLred) reg­is­tered a total of twenty-seven trades for 1,359 tons, with an aver­age price of €3.72 dur­ing the 14 – 24 October period.

According to Poolred, bulk vir­gin extra olive oil com­manded €3.76 per kilo­gram, vir­gin oil was at €3.68 and lam­pante was €3.60 per kilo­gram.

On the 19^th of October, the Observatorio de Precios de la Federación Española de Industriales Fabricantes de Aceite de Oliva (Infaoliva) indi­cated com­mer­cial prices for extra vir­gin oils at €3.668 per kilo­gram, vir­gin oils at €3.619 per kilo­gram and lam­pante, in the Picual vari­ety, at €3.539.

In Andalucía, olive oil pro­duc­tion is esti­mated to be 884,900 tons for the cur­rent cam­paign, and in Jaén, the province, where out­put this sea­son is down 28 per­cent, oil pro­duc­tion is antic­i­pated to be 360,000 tons.

It is pre­dicted that there will be sig­nif­i­cant pro­duc­tion decreases in almost all of the provinces in Andalucía for the 2017 – 2018 cam­paign. However, Sevilla, Málaga and Almería are the excep­tions, show­ing an increase over the pre­vi­ous cam­paign.

Scarce rain was an issue in the spring as well as in the fall, and high tem­per­a­tures in the sum­mer also con­tributed to low har­vest. However, accord­ing to the Ministry of Agriculture, esti­mates may vary depend­ing on pre­cip­i­ta­tion. Harvest pro­duc­tion may increase if rain is present in the fol­low­ing days or decrease if the drought con­tin­ues.

The low pro­duc­tion num­bers in Spain coin­cide with an esti­mated mod­est global increase of oil pro­duc­tion. The International Olive Council cal­cu­lates a 12-per­cent increase for a pro­duc­tion total of 2.854 mil­lion tons.