Spain’s Bigger Harvest Could Trigger Market Action

Spain is expected to produce 1.603 million metric tons of olive oil in the 2026/27 crop year, a 23 percent increase from the previous harvest, according to the first official forecast published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food.

The crop can be maintained, or we can lose a large part of it.– Jesús Cózar, UPA Andalucía

The ministry described the expected harvest as “medium-high,” marking a significant rebound from the roughly 1.298 million tons produced in 2025/26. That crop had initially been forecast at about 1.37 million tons before adverse weather reduced final output by about five percent.

“This first forecast reflects the climatic conditions of the season,” Agriculture Minister Luis Planas said. “It provides a guarantee of supply and stability for the domestic market and our exports.”

Favorable spring conditions underpin much of the expected increase in Spanish olive oil production. Mild temperatures and abundant rainfall supported flowering and fruit set across the country’s main olive-growing areas.

However, the ministry emphasized that the forecast remains preliminary. High summer temperatures particularly affected rainfed groves, while weather during the early weeks of the new crop year will influence fruit development, oil yields and final production.

Much will depend on Andalusia, the world’s largest olive oil-producing region, which is expected to account for nearly four-fifths of Spain’s production.

Both the national ministry and the regional government forecast Andalusian production at 1.261 million tons. Jaén, the country’s largest producing province, is expected to account for 575,000 tons, equivalent to 36 percent of Spain’s total and 45.6 percent of Andalusia’s production.

Córdoba is forecast to produce 339,700 tons, followed by Seville with 142,000 tons.

Ramón Fernández-Pacheco, Andalusia’s agriculture minister, said the regional forecast serves as an important indicator for markets inside and outside the region.

“The current season has been shaped by a very rainy winter, which favored crop development, although temperatures far above average limited production potential,” he said.

Agricultural organizations have broadly described the Andalusian forecast as plausible, but they point to sharply different conditions between irrigated and rainfed groves and say rainfall could still determine how much of the expected crop reaches the mills.

Francisco Elvira, head of the olive sector at COAG Andalucía, said the forecast was reasonable but warned that continued dry weather could bring final production significantly below current estimates.

UPA Andalucía secretary general Jesús Cózar has drawn a similar distinction between irrigated groves, which generally entered the final phase of fruit development in good condition, and rainfed olives showing considerably more water stress.

“We are in a decisive phase for the olive tree,” Cózar said in September. “The crop can be maintained, or we can lose a large part of it.”

Unión de Uniones has focused on damage that rainfall can no longer reverse. The organization said intense summer heat had already caused some olives to fall from the trees and that improved weather could benefit the remaining fruit but could not recover those losses.

“Summer temperatures were high, and the olive trees dropped some fruit because they could not sustain it,” said Anastasio Yébenes, the organization’s head of agricultural sectors. “What has already fallen cannot be recovered.”

The previous crop year’s experience also encourages caution. Repeated rain and strong winds delayed harvesting and caused fruit losses in some areas, with Spain ultimately producing about five percent less olive oil than initially forecast.

Outside Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha is expected to remain Spain’s second-largest producing region, with 152,555 tons, a ten percent increase from last year. Extremadura follows with 97,300 tons, up 24 percent.

Production is expected to decline in several smaller producing regions, including Catalonia, Aragón, Murcia, Navarra, Madrid and the Balearic Islands.

Spain still held more than 475,000 tons of olive oil at the end of August, according to market data cited by sector representatives. September sales will reduce that amount before final carryover stocks are established.

ASAJA Jaén has estimated that stocks entering the new crop year could be around 350,000 tons, while COAG has projected approximately 374,000 tons.

If those estimates and the national production forecast are confirmed, Spain could enter the season with close to two million tons of olive oil available from domestic production and carryover stocks before imports are taken into account.

Those volumes could also determine whether Spain activates a market-regulation mechanism allowing olive oil to be temporarily withdrawn from the market in the event of excess supply.

In July, the Agriculture Ministry opened a public consultation on rules for the 2026/27 crop year based on Article 167 bis of the European Union’s Common Market Organization regulation.

Under the proposed rules, the mechanism could be activated if opening stocks plus forecast production reach at least 120 percent of the average combined level recorded during the previous six crop years.

Oil could then be temporarily withdrawn until the following crop year or directed to non-food uses.

COAG believes the current production forecast and expected carryover could be enough to trigger the mechanism and has called for government-backed financing to help cooperatives and mills cover the cost of storing withdrawn oil.

Based on its estimate of 374,000 tons of carryover, the organization has suggested that about ten percent of production could need to be temporarily withheld.

UPA and ASAJA have also said final production and carryover figures could meet the conditions required to consider the measure, although no decision has been made.

Planas confirmed that the government would assess updated regional crop estimates and final carryover figures in October and decide in the first half of November whether to activate the mechanism.

“We are following the situation very closely and analyzing it with absolute rigor,” he said. “It is an extraordinary measure, applied under extraordinary circumstances.”