Low Prices and Weak Harvest Deepen Uncertainty in Greek Olive Oil Sector

The completion of the 2025/26 olive harvest has brought renewed uncertainty to the Greek olive oil sector, with a disappointing crop of less than 200,000 metric tons followed by persistently low producer prices that are discouraging sales.

Fresh extra virgin olive oil prices are currently about 30 percent lower than last year, ranging between €4.50 and €5.40 per kilogram in key producing regions such as Chania in Crete, and Laconia and Messenia in the Peloponnese.

The Greek olive oil market has largely stalled, with many producers waiting for wholesale prices to improve in the coming months.

“Olive oil producers in our area are in despair, as they got less than usual oil this year while production costs are always on the rise,” Panagiotis Batzakis, head of the olive association of Agioi Apostoloi in Laconia, told Olive Oil Times.

“So, they hold on to their fresh olive oils until wholesale prices pick up,” he added.

Batzakis said the association has so far sold only a few shipments of bulk extra virgin olive oil for around €5.00 per kilogram to Italian bottlers.

He noted that the region produced 40 percent less olive oil than average this year, largely due to the sensitivity of Athinolia olive trees to sudden weather shifts and infections from gloeosporium.

“We sell most of the olive oil produced by our association members in bulk,” Batzakis said.

“Producers cannot afford to wait until their bottled olive oil reaches supermarket shelves. We tried that in the past, but big bottlers and retailers who control much of the market were an impassable obstacle.”

Each year, roughly 70 percent of Greek olive oil exports are sold in bulk to wholesale buyers, mainly in Italy and Spain. The loss associated with selling oils unbranded is estimated at €200 million annually.

Other producers in Laconia said cheaper imported olive oil from Tunisia is also weighing on prices. Some argued that once seasonal imports decline, domestic producers may secure better prices for their oils.

Under the European Union-Tunisia Association Agreement of 1995, the bloc can import up to 56,700 metric tons of Tunisian olive oil tariff-free each year to help cover demand.

Spanish farmers, however, have argued that larger quantities of Tunisian olive oil are entering the European market without sufficient traceability, distorting prices and prompting calls for Brussels to suspend imports from the North African country.

Those concerns intensified after Spanish producers urged authorities to halt Tunisian olive oil imports amid traceability concerns.

On Crete, producers said the local olive oil market remains highly volatile, with buyers expressing interest but often failing to complete purchases.

According to Manolis Mavromatakis of the Sitia agricultural association, producer prices remain near €4.00 per kilogram for extra virgin olive oil, effectively preventing substantial transactions.

Olive oil production on the island fell to between 45,000 and 50,000 tons this year, down from roughly 78,000 tons in 2024/25.

Beyond weak prices, the prolonged rainy season experienced across Greece forced producers to adapt their harvest strategies.

Earlier in the season, growers across Greece reported sharp declines as pests ravaged portions of the harvest.

“This harvest was different from previous ones, as the continuous rainfalls from October to March created conditions opposite to the persistent drought of recent years,” said Alexis Karabelas of award-winning AMG Karabelas in the Peloponnese.

Karabelas said the increased humidity from the prolonged rains contributed to outbreaks of olive pests, forcing many producers to begin harvesting earlier than usual.

“We managed to adjust our harvest operations accordingly, but some Greek extra virgin olive oils scored lower in their organoleptic analysis for bitterness and pungency,” he said.

In Messenia, where olive oil production fell by half compared to previous bumper harvests to around 30,000 tons, producer Panagiotis Vougioukas said the crop suffered from pest pressure and the natural off-year cycle of the trees.

According to industry experts, only about one-third of the region’s oils produced this year qualify as virgin or extra virgin, with many local producers also holding back sales while waiting for higher wholesale prices.

Looking ahead, Vougioukas said there are encouraging signs for the next harvest if weather conditions remain favorable.

“The olive trees in Messenia are blanketed in flowers, so we now need dry weather and a light breeze to help with pollination,” he said. “A few rains in June and July would also be welcome, as they would help the young olive drupes to grow.”