Jordan Expects Olive Oil Rebound as Mills Prepare for Harvest

Jordan is preparing for a sharp recovery in olive oil production, with government officials and industry representatives forecasting output nearly double that of the previous season.

Khalil Al-Amro, an assistant secretary-general at the Ministry of Agriculture responsible for agricultural marketing and quality, said preliminary field estimates suggest production could reach approximately 30,000 metric tons in the 2026/27 crop year, compared with annual domestic requirements of around 27,000 tons. The forecast could leave room for exports.

According to the Jordanian Department of Statistics, olive oil production fell to 16,342 metric tons in the 2025/26 crop year, down 54.4 percent from 35,828 tons the previous season.

The department reported that the quantity of olives processed fell from 184,903 to 84,154 tons. Olive oil production was also 34.4 percent below the country’s 2012–2024 historical average of 24,923 tons.

The olive tree’s natural alternate-bearing cycle and rainfall variations were identified as key factors behind the fluctuations in production. The 2025 harvest was the smallest recorded since 2009.

Industry representatives have issued broadly similar production forecasts, although their estimates of domestic consumption differ.

Fayad Al-Ziyoud, a member of the Jordanian Association of Olive Products Producers and Exporters and the International Olive Council’s advisory committee, estimated total olive production for the new crop year at between 220,000 and 230,000 tons.

Approximately 30,000 tons of olives would be used for table olive production, while around 200,000 tons would be processed for oil.

Al-Ziyoud forecast olive oil production of between 28,000 and 31,000 tons. Based on his lower estimate of domestic consumption, which he put at between 24,000 and 25,000 tons annually, he anticipated an exportable surplus of 4,000 to 5,000 tons.

He also said imports, which had been permitted to compensate for last season’s shortage, would no longer be necessary. Restrictions on exporting unprocessed olives would remain in place to protect domestic processing.

The Ministry of Agriculture has authorized the country’s olive mills to begin operations on October 15 and instructed regional agricultural authorities to enforce the opening date. Milling before that date is prohibited under regulations governing olive mill operations.

According to Taysir Najdawi, head of the Olive Press Owners and Producers Association, 153 licensed mills across Jordan are preparing to receive olives.

Improved rainfall has helped raise expectations for the new harvest, particularly in Jordan’s northern olive-growing regions.

In Ajloun, one of the country’s major producing areas, agricultural director Sitan Sarhan reported approximately 600 millimeters of rainfall during the previous rainy season. The province expects to harvest around 43,000 tons of olives from approximately 8,600 hectares of olive groves.

Alongside more favorable weather, authorities have continued efforts to improve crop protection and olive quality.

In April, the Ministry of Agriculture launched its 2026 national integrated olive pest management program, distributing 35,000 yellow sticky traps for monitoring and control and organizing 16 training courses for farmers.

The initiative follows a national olive sector campaign previously reported by Olive Oil Times, which focused on controlling the olive fruit fly, reducing pesticide residues and improving farming practices.

In Ajloun alone, agricultural authorities reported distributing more than 3,000 food traps and 3,000 colored traps as part of integrated pest management efforts.

Higher production is also expected to influence domestic olive oil prices, although producers and mill operators continue to face elevated operating costs.

Najdawi forecast retail prices of between 90 (€113.20) and 110 (€138.36) Jordanian dinars for a traditional 16-liter tin of olive oil, depending on quality and market conditions.

That would mark a decline from the 130 to 150 dinars reported during the previous season, when the sharp drop in production drove prices higher.

In a recent interview with Roya News, Najdawi said milling fees had increased by 0.10 dinars per kilogram of olive oil produced, after remaining unchanged for approximately 12 years.

According to Najdawi, the previous fee of 0.65 dinars per kilogram had been maintained despite rising operating costs. The increase to 0.75 dinars would add approximately two dinars to the milling cost of a tin of olive oil.

Najdawi attributed some of the cost pressures to imported replacement parts and machinery, which are not manufactured locally. Al-Ziyoud estimated that farmers face production costs of at least 75 to 80 dinars per tin of olive oil.

The final impact on consumer prices will depend on actual production volumes, the quality of harvested olives and demand during the season.

The approaching harvest has also renewed discussion about traditional farming practices, particularly the widespread custom of waiting for the first autumn rainfall before picking olives.

Known locally as shtwat al-zaytoun, or the olive rain, the practice reflects a longstanding belief that rainfall increases the fruit’s oil content.

However, agricultural specialists interviewed by the Jordan News Agency, Petra, including Al-Ziyoud, urged growers to focus instead on fruit maturity. They explained that rainfall can increase the fruit’s water content without necessarily increasing its oil content.

As mills prepare to begin operations, Jordanian authorities are also stepping up efforts to protect consumers from olive oil fraud.

The Ministry of Agriculture has urged consumers to purchase olive oil from trusted producers, licensed mills and established retailers, warning against suspiciously cheap offers and products of uncertain origin.

In August, the Food and Drug Administration and industry representatives discussed additional safeguards for the coming season, including measures to improve traceability, identify the production season on labels and restrict the sale of empty metal tins.

Among the recommendations is an appeal to consumers to puncture empty olive oil tins before discarding them. The measure is intended to prevent containers from being reused to sell adulterated products, giving consumers a role in protecting the authenticity of Jordanian olive oil.

For farmers in Ajloun, the expected recovery carries particular significance after last year’s difficult harvest.

In October 2025, as the previous harvest began, local farmer Jamil Abu Wissam told the Jordanian newspaper Al-Ghad that some mills had yet to receive enough olives to begin operating. Many trees carried so little fruit that growers could not meet their own household needs.

Some farmers, he explained, had decided not to harvest the few olives remaining on their trees, fearing the effort could damage branches and compromise the following season.

Speaking to Al-Ghad again in September 2026, Abu Wissam described renewed anticipation surrounding the approaching harvest, which provides families with olive oil and preserved olives for their own consumption, as well as income from selling the surplus.

“Everyone eagerly awaits the benefits of a tree that has clung to Ajloun’s hillsides for centuries,” Abu Wissam told Al-Ghad.