European Olive Oil Exports Bounce Back

European olive oil exports to the United States, Canada, China and Australia grew by 25 percent during the 2024/25 crop year.

According to the latest short-term outlook report published by the European Commission, the trend is attributed to both increased production across the European Union and lower prices.

Still, the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development warned that the 2025/26 crop year may result in a lower harvest than anticipated.

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“The initially favorable prospects of 2025/26 E.U. olive oil production, which will start in October, might be hampered due to recently observed hot weather in Spain and Portugal,” the report said.

In 2024/25, E.U. countries are expected to produce 2.1 million tons of olive oil, a 37 percent increase over the previous campaign and 15 percent above the five-year average.

Among the main producing countries, only Italy will conclude the campaign with a yield 25 percent lower than last season.

Spain, the bloc’s top producer, is forecast to reach 1.4 million tons, a 66 percent increase compared to the previous campaign.

Production is also expected to rise in Greece by 43 percent (250,000 tons) and in Portugal by ten percent (177,000 tons).

The surge in production has significantly impacted prices. Since January 2024, extra virgin olive oil prices in Spain have halved, dropping from €9.03 per liter to €3.50, below the five-year average.

In contrast, the commission believes limited availability in Italy has kept prices high.

Brussels noted that a surge in exports to the United States during the current campaign appears to be a reaction to the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy.

E.U. olive oil imports are also expected to rise by 15 percent, reaching approximately 240,000 tons.

The report indicates that increased availability has suppressed demand for foreign olive oil in key producing countries, such as Spain. 

Still, imports from Tunisia, Europe’s leading trading partner, are set to rise, particularly due to declining volumes in Italy.

Tunisian exports could reach 110,000 tons by the end of the crop year, with more than 58,000 tons destined for Italy and around 44,000 tons for Spain.

The report also notes that E.U. olive oil consumption is expected to rebound to 1.4 million tons in 2024/2025, aligning with the five-year average.

Interestingly, most of the consumption growth is expected in producing countries, where record-high prices in 2022 and 2023 had led to reduced household purchases and intense debate.

At the end of 2023, the commission had forecast stagnant or declining production and consumption trends over the coming decade within the European Union.

According to the report, ending stocks for the 2024/25 crop year are projected to exceed 450,000 tons, compared to just over 350,000 tons the previous year and under 300,000 tons in 2023/24.

In Italy, ending stocks will reach 80,000 tons, 7,100 tons below the ten-year average. Spain’s ending stocks will total 271,000 tons, well above the previous campaign’s 186,000 tons, though still below the ten-year average of 371,700 tons.

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