In spite of a wet March, Spain is expected to experience another hot and dry summer, which is increasingly becoming the new normal.
While the north of Spain and Portugal are in for an unusually wet spring, the threat of drought remains in Spanish olive country.
“The warm and dry weather will come at a cost as the threat for drought conditions will grow in eastern Spain,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alan Reppert said.
Now we need to begin to fill our aquifers and swamps and allow crops to recover from the tremendous drought.- ASAJA Jaén
“Prolonged dry spells during spring may cause problems for agriculture due to a lack of soil moisture in areas that typically see very infrequent rainfall during the summer.”
Reppert said that southern Spain should expect substantial rain over the next several weeks, meaning it will take longer to dry out. He also expects several springtime storms to pass through western Spain. However, all this expected precipitation may not be enough to counteract another hot and dry summer.
“Summer is looking like it will be dry over the area, which is normal, but the dry weather will be even more amplified this year,” he said. “Normal rainfall in parts of eastern Spain are around an inch or lower, but even with normal rainfall being so low there will likely be below normal rainfall there.”
However, the heart of Spanish olive country currently is enjoying a rainy March. Jorge Olcina, the head of the University of Alicante’s climate institute, predicts that the region will have a wet March and receive more rainfall in May and June. However, he also predicts that April, July and August will be very hot and dry.
The Agricultural Association of Young Farmers (ASAJA) in Jaén said that farmers need to be diligent with all the recent rainfall and use the water to replenish their aquifers.
“The rains were widespread throughout the province and it is forecasted to continue,” an ASAJA Jaén spokesperson said. “Now we need to begin to fill our aquifers and swamps and allow crops to recover from the tremendous drought.”
In spite of the recent rain, experts do not think Spain is in the clear yet. Over the past three years, Spain has received considerably less rainfall than normal. Last year, the region received between 50 and 80 percent of its normal precipitation totals.
“For the past several years there has been below normal precipitation,” Reppert said. “Averages are based on 30-year totals, and the current ones are from 1980 to 2010, and when we get to the new averages of 1990 to 2020, that will likely drop averages even further for rainfall and see average temperatures climb too.”
Climatologists believe this is part of a changing pattern and that the Iberian Peninsula is shifting from a more temperate climate to a subtropical one.
“[The region] tends to have more subtropical characteristics with higher temperatures and rarer and more intense rains,” Olcina said. “So climate-related risks — heatwaves and rain and droughts and floods, will increase in the coming decades.”
Olcina said the whole of Spain, but the specifically the south, should expect hotter autumns and springs than normal. His climate models predict a consistent decrease in precipitation with the trend continuing well past 2050.
“This is the climate scenario to which agriculture must adapt in the coming decades,” he said. “More heat and more irregular rainfall, with less rain in spring, very dry summers and something more humid the autumns.”
Callum Henderson is the owner of Great Oil, which produces oil from locally sourced olives in Jaén. He is skeptical that this year will be worse than the previous one, in which there was virtually no rainfall from April to September with record-high temperatures.
Henderson said that the farmers with whom he works are enjoying the rain ahead of what he anticipates will be a dry, but not drier than usual, summer.
“The farmers are doing what they always do,” he said. “My best guess is average rainfall this spring, [but] that’s in Mother Nature’s hands.”
Jan. 7, 2022
Andalusian Officials Criticize Loss of Funding for Farmers in Proposed Ag. Policy
Andalusia’s regional agriculture minister warned that the current Common Agricultural Proposal in Spain would lead to 53 percent of farmers losing funding.
Sep. 1, 2021
Italian Olive Growers Suffer Through Long Summer of Drought, Wildfires
Coldiretti estimates that wildfires cost the Italian agriculture sector at least €1 billion in damage. Olive growers blame climate change for longer, hotter and drier summers.
Apr. 11, 2022
Olive Oil Sales and Exports on the Rise in Tunisia and Spain
Olive oil prices are also rising in both countries but producers are not always seeing the benefit.
Jul. 13, 2022
Agricultural Incomes Rise in Andalusia, Boosted by Resurgent Olive Oil Sector
Andalusian agricultural income exceeded €10 billion for the first time, spurred on by a 77-percent increase in the value of its olive oil production.
Jan. 17, 2022
2021 Was Earth’s Fifth Hottest Year, Scientists Say
The annual average temperature in 2021 exceeded the modern average by 0.3 ºC, scientists at Europe’s Copernicus climate change service found.
Jun. 9, 2022
Spanish Producers Achieve Record Success at World Competition
Producers from across the country overcame drought and extreme weather events to earn a record-high 128 awards at the World Competition.
Oct. 21, 2021
Italian Trade Group Backs Pan-European Traceability Rules
In wake of the new legislation passed in Spain, the Italian producer association said it is time for all European countries to adopt the same practices.
Jul. 25, 2022
Unraveling the Mystery Behind Slovenia's Dramatic Fruit Drop
This time, the usual suspects were not responsible for the drying and falling of fruits.