Falling Olive Oil Prices Spark Concern in Spain

Summary

After reach­ing his­toric highs in 2023 and 2024, olive oil prices in Spain have returned to 2022 lev­els, with prices for all cat­e­gories sig­nif­i­cantly lower. Despite con­cerns about mar­ket manip­u­la­tion and spec­u­la­tive pric­ing, a rebound in pro­duc­tion and a pos­i­tive out­look for the upcom­ing har­vest have led to a dra­matic decline in prices, reflect­ing a nat­ural bal­anc­ing mech­a­nism between sup­ply and demand.

After two years of his­toric highs, olive oil prices at ori­gin have returned to lev­els seen in 2022, accord­ing to the lat­est report from Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA).

“Prices for all cat­e­gories are below the lev­els of the last two cam­paigns, with dif­fer­ences in extra vir­gin olive oil depend­ing on the rep­re­sen­ta­tive mar­ket,” the min­istry wrote.

According to its data, extra vir­gin olive oil prices reached €349 per 100 kilo­grams in the 21^st week of 2025, com­pared to €797 per 100 kilo­grams in the same week of 2024 and €606 per 100 kilo­grams in 2023. Prices for vir­gin, lam­pante and refined olive oil have declined by sim­i­lar mar­gins.

Olive oil prices in Spain increased sig­nif­i­cantly in 2023 and 2024, pri­mar­ily due to his­tor­i­cally poor har­vests and ris­ing pro­duc­tion costs.

However, a wet win­ter and mild spring tem­per­a­tures resulted in a sig­nif­i­cant pro­duc­tion rebound in the 2024/25 crop year. 

Despite recent devel­op­ments, there is also a rea­son­ably pos­i­tive out­look for the upcom­ing har­vest. Both fac­tors are pri­mar­ily respon­si­ble for the dra­matic price decline over the past eight months.

Juan Vilar, the chief exec­u­tive of olive oil and agri­cul­tural con­sul­tancy Vilcon, high­lighted that pric­ing move­ments reflect the nat­ural bal­anc­ing mech­a­nism between sup­ply and demand.

“There has been an almost com­plete recov­ery in demand, which had plum­meted due to the sup­ply cri­sis of pre­vi­ous years,” he told Olive Oil Times. ​“The only mech­a­nism that bal­ances real demand with future sup­ply expec­ta­tions is pric­ing, which — when low­ered — dri­ves demand upward to absorb avail­able sup­ply.” 

“This trend will con­tinue until demand adjusts to pro­duc­tion plus inven­tory lev­els, at which point, if sup­ply becomes unsus­tain­able, the only way to stim­u­late demand would be by reduc­ing prices below the estab­lished thresh­old,” Vilar added.

However, the dra­matic decline in prices has left some pro­duc­ers con­cerned about mar­ket manip­u­la­tion and spec­u­la­tive pric­ing. 

Spain’s Union of Small Farmers (UPA) and COAG have issued warn­ings that many pro­duc­ers enter­ing an ​‘off year’ in the nat­ural alter­nate bear­ing cycle of the olive tree, com­bined with abnor­mally high tem­per­a­tures and the emer­gence of pests in some areas, could impact the 2025/26 yield.

“The price decline does­n’t reflect mar­ket real­ity,” said Juan Luis Ávila, the head of olive oil at the Coordinating Committee of Farmers and Ranchers’ Organizations (COAG). ​“We are con­vinced that there are hid­den agree­ments that are manip­u­lat­ing prices at source to harm farm­ers and ben­e­fit cer­tain inter­me­di­aries. We don’t have the resources to prove what’s hap­pen­ing, but the evi­dence is clear.”

Additionally, UPA Granada sec­re­tary-gen­eral Nicolás Chica accused cer­tain mar­ket oper­a­tors of spread­ing overly opti­mistic pro­jec­tions about the upcom­ing har­vest and dri­ving down prices paid to farm­ers below the level of their costs.

“We can’t allow inten­tional mes­sages about the future to be sent when we still have to wait to see how tem­per­a­tures and the weather in gen­eral behave,” he said. ​“We already have expe­ri­ence from pre­vi­ous cam­paigns in which cli­matic anom­alies caused us to suf­fer the worst har­vests in his­tory.”

• Olearevista
• Infobae