`Hot, Dry Start to Autumn Lowers Production Estimates in Spain - Olive Oil Times
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Hot, Dry Start to Autumn Lowers Production Estimates in Spain

By Daniel Dawson
Oct. 29, 2025 13:58 UTC
Summary Summary

Spain’s largest agri­cul­tural coop­er­a­tive has revised its olive oil pro­duc­tion esti­mates down to 1.3 mil­lion met­ric tons for the 2025/26 crop year due to lack of rain and high tem­per­a­tures in September and October. Rising costs and an unsta­ble mar­ket are threat­en­ing tra­di­tional, non-irri­gated olive groves, prompt­ing calls for invest­ment in irri­ga­tion infra­struc­ture and mod­ern­iza­tion to pre­vent deser­ti­fi­ca­tion and pre­serve soil fer­til­ity.

The lack of rain and high tem­per­a­tures in September and October have led Spain’s largest agri­cul­tural coop­er­a­tive to revise its olive oil pro­duc­tion esti­mates down to 1.3 mil­lion met­ric tons for the 2025/26 crop year.

According to Spain’s state-run mete­o­ro­log­i­cal agency, the begin­ning of autumn has brought above-aver­age tem­per­a­tures, neg­a­tively affect­ing oil accu­mu­la­tion in the fruit and poten­tially its qual­ity as well. 

As recently as September, Spanish olive oil pro­duc­tion was expected to match or even exceed last crop year’s yield of 1.45 mil­lion tons.

See Also:Catalonia Expects Significant Increase in Olive Oil Production

Now, Cooperativas Agro-ali­men­ta­rias antic­i­pates pro­duc­tion will not meet the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food’s 1.37 mil­lion ton esti­mate pub­lished in October.

While irri­gated olive groves will be fine after plen­ti­ful win­ter and spring pre­cip­i­ta­tion refilled Andalusian aquifers, lakes and reser­voirs, olive farm­ers said rain in November could improve the sit­u­a­tion in the non-irri­gated groves, which make up 70 per­cent of the total. 

Expectations for the har­vest decline as farm­ers, espe­cially in tra­di­tional, non-irri­gated olive groves, face ris­ing costs and an unsta­ble mar­ket. 

According to Cooperativas Agro-ali­men­ta­rias, there is a ris­ing risk of an ​“absolute loss” of prof­itabil­ity in non-irri­gated olive groves.

”Without an effec­tive and sta­ble water pol­icy, the risk of these olive groves being aban­doned is real,” the coop­er­a­tive said, call­ing for regional and national author­i­ties to invest in irri­ga­tion infra­struc­ture and mod­ern­iza­tion and the restruc­tur­ing of the olive sec­tor. 

The cooperative’s call to action comes on the heels of new research pub­lished by the University of Alicante that illus­trates the increas­ing threat posed to olive groves by deser­ti­fi­ca­tion.

The research found that inap­pro­pri­ate agri­cul­tural prac­tices, such as elim­i­nat­ing cover crops and plant­ing on steep slopes, have made the olive groves vul­ner­a­ble to ero­sion and declin­ing soil fer­til­ity. 

“The loss of fer­tile soil has become the main prob­lem asso­ci­ated with olive cul­ti­va­tion, con­tribut­ing sig­nif­i­cantly to the deser­ti­fi­ca­tion process affect­ing a sig­nif­i­cant por­tion of Spain,” José Alfonso Gómez Calero, a researcher at the uni­ver­sity, told Oleorevista. 

The research pointed to the pro­lif­er­a­tion of high-den­sity and super-high-den­sity olive groves as one of the main cul­prits in Andalusia’s deser­ti­fi­ca­tion.

”This inten­sive model threat­ens tra­di­tional orchards and leads to land aban­don­ment due to high main­te­nance costs and reduced soil sus­tain­abil­ity,” Gómez said. 

“To mit­i­gate deser­ti­fi­ca­tion, the use of liv­ing plant cov­ers in olive groves and other woody crops has been inves­ti­gated,” he added. ​“These cover crops pro­tect the soil from ero­sion, improve its sta­bil­ity and retain mois­ture, con­tribut­ing to the sus­tain­abil­ity of the agri­cul­tural sys­tem and pre­serv­ing soil fer­til­ity.”

The increas­ingly pes­simistic view of the upcom­ing har­vest has also led to prices for extra vir­gin, vir­gin and lam­pante olive oils at ori­gin ris­ing steadily since May.

Extra vir­gin olive oil prices have climbed from €3.20 to €4.10 per kilo­gram. Prices for vir­gin olive oil rose from €2.80 to €3.65, while lam­pante rose from €2.64 to €3.50 over that period.

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