By studying climate models and tree rings, scientists at Columbia University’s Earth Institute predict a period of unprecedented drying in many parts of the world, particularly in areas of North American and Eurasia.
A recent study published in the journal Nature, reveals that man-made greenhouse gases have been a cause of drought for more than a century.
As part of the study, scientists at Columbia University’s Earth Institute studied reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which uses information on temperature and precipitation to estimate relative dryness and quantify drought, and compared these with data from 600 to 900-year-old tree rings.
The big thing we learned is that climate change started affecting global patterns of drought in the early twentieth century. We expect this pattern to keep emerging as climate change continues.- Benjamin Cook, study’s co-author
The tree rings were used as a baseline to examine weather patterns before they were affected by human activity in the form of the creation of greenhouse gases. Both sets of data showed similar drought patterns and on this basis, conclusions revealed a clear sign of the human influence on greenhouse gases.
By studying climate models, the scientists identified three distinct periods. During the first half of the century from 1900 to 1949, the study notes that signs of the effects of global warming due to the production of greenhouse gases were already obvious.
See Also:Climate Change News“The big thing we learned is that climate change started affecting global patterns of drought in the early twentieth century,” Benjamin Cook, the study’s co-author, said. “We expect this pattern to keep emerging as climate change continues.”
The period from 1950 to 1975 was marked by a “global increase in aerosol forcing.” During this time, the use of large amounts of industrial aerosols reached a peak and affected cloud formation, precipitation and temperatures. Also during this period, the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rose, but this may have been masked by the effects of aerosols.
In more recent years, from 1981 to the present, the study notes that “the signal of greenhouse gas forcing is present but not yet detectable at high confidence.”
Though there has been a decrease in the use of aerosol pollution in the past decades, industrial activities have increased and resulted in rising emissions and temperatures. The effects of climate change on the hydroclimate have been especially obvious since 2000.
“It’s mind boggling,” lead author Kate Marvel said. “There is a really clear signal of the effects of human greenhouse gases on the hydroclimate.”
According to the conclusions drawn from the researchers’ observations, there is an increased drying of soil happening in much of North America, Central America, Eurasia and the Mediterranean, while the Indian subcontinent has become wetter.
As for drought predictions for the near future, the outlook is bleak. The study predicts a period of unprecedented drying in many parts of the world, particularly in areas of North American and Eurasia where this may even be severe. Some of the world’s agricultural areas are at risk of drying out and can even become permanently arid. These trends are likely to have negative repercussions on the human population.
As for precipitation, forecasts predict the same or an increased amount of rainfall in Central America, Mexico, the central and western United States and Europe in the years to come. But at the same time temperatures are expected to rise and result in more evaporation of moisture from the soil in these areas of the world.
The Mediterranean region is expected to receive less rainfall and more evaporation due to heat. More rain is predicted for the Indian subcontinent because of the warming of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, but rainfall patterns may be unpredictable and storms more likely.
More articles on: climate change, drought, environment
Aug. 10, 2023
Asphalt Made with Olive Oil Byproducts Used to Pave a Highway in Spain
Local officials said the experimental asphalt is more environmentally friendly to manufacture, safer for workers and could provide new revenue for producers.
Jun. 5, 2023
Some Hope for Growers as Rain Falls in Andalusia
For many producers in southern Spain, too little rain has fallen too late, with expectations of another poor harvest looming. Still, the rain lifted expectations.
Dec. 4, 2023
COP28 Climate Summit Gets Underway Amid Tensions
The COP28 climate conference in Dubai has sparked controversy over the role of oil and gas companies in negotiations.
Dec. 4, 2023
How the Iberian Ant Can Help Control Pests in Olive Groves
Researchers found that Iberian ants naturally prey on olive moth larvae in olive groves without disrupting the rest of the ecosystem.
Sep. 28, 2023
Olive Oil Production Expected to Fall Below 1M Tons in Spain
Anticipation of a second-consecutive poor harvest in the world’s largest olive oil producer means prices are likely to keep rising.
Nov. 1, 2023
Olive Trees Can Help Beat Climate Change
At a three-day conference, the International Olive Council emphasized the role olive farming can play in efforts to reach global net zero emissions.
Feb. 22, 2024
Experts Back Olives in a Hotter, Drier World
Olive farming may play a critical role in the future of agriculture. Researchers have suggestions for doing it right.
Oct. 31, 2023
California Farmers Plant Hedgerows to Conserve Water, Improve Soil Health
Hedgerows improve water retention in the soil and create natural habitats for beneficial birds and other pest predators. Farmers said they add aesthetic value, too.