` Report Forecasts Olive Oil Prospects for Spain, Italy, Greece - Olive Oil Times

Report Forecasts Olive Oil Prospects for Spain, Italy, Greece

Aug. 27, 2012
Costas Vasilopoulos

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The European Commission has released a brief report on olive oil pro­duc­tion expec­ta­tions towards year 2020. Based mainly on sta­tis­ti­cal analy­sis and pre­dic­tions about the pro­gres­sion of the oil indus­try com­pared to past trends, the report is con­cerned with the big three’ of the olive oil sec­tor; Spain, Italy and Greece.

Spain

For Spain, assum­ing aver­age cli­matic con­di­tions, olive oil pro­duc­tion in 2020 is expected to be approx­i­mately 1.68 mil­lion tons com­pared to less than 1.50 tons in 2011, with a fluc­tu­a­tion between 1.43 and 1.86 mil­lion tons. The per capita olive oil con­sump­tion will remain the same at 13kg/year for a total con­sump­tion of 632,000 tons in Spain.

Exports of olive oil are due to fol­low the trend of the past years reach­ing 1.047 mil­lion tons com­pared to 840,000 tons in 2011, mostly to mar­kets out­side the EU, while imports will not change sig­nif­i­cantly and stay at 40,000 to 50,000 tons.

Regarding the land used for olive groves in Spain, an increase is expected for irri­gated olive groves from 681,000 hectares in 2011 to 771,000 hectares in 2020, while a loss of 20,000 hectares is expected for the non-irri­gated groves.

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Italy

Italy will most likely expe­ri­ence a minor decrease in olive oil pro­duc­tion in 2020 to 477,000 tons, com­pared to 538,000 tons in 2011. Imports of olive oil will con­tinue to be a strong part of the sec­tor and they are expected to be just under 500,000 tons per year until 2020. Exports are expected to approx­i­mately 360,000 tons in 2020.

Considering that con­sump­tion of olive oil in Italy has been declin­ing dur­ing the recent years, the same pat­tern is expected for the time period until 2020 and con­sump­tion will sum up to 360,000 tons.

The land in Italy used for olive trees cul­ti­va­tion will remain unchanged count­ing to 1.14 mil­lion hectares, accord­ing to the report.

Greece

Olive oil pro­duc­tion in Greece is also expected to decline, from 310,000 tons in 2011 to 270,000 tons in 2020. Regarding exports and tak­ing into con­sid­er­a­tion the fact that the trend of pre­vi­ous years shows a reduc­tion, a slight fall is pro­jected by the report and exports will sum up to 82,000 in 2020. Oil imports in the coun­try are neg­li­gi­ble and amount to only 3,000 tons per year.

Consumption of olive oil in the coun­try is also expected to decline, from a total of 228,000 tons in 2011 to 202,000 tons in 2020.

Finally, the land used for olive groves will most likely expand to 767,000 hectares in 2020 com­pared to 738,000 hectares in 2007, but with a reduc­tion in the yield.



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