Turkey Braces for Sharp Drop in Olive Oil Output as Weather and Costs Take Toll

Summary

Turkey is fac­ing a sig­nif­i­cant decrease in olive oil pro­duc­tion due to the nat­ural bien­nial cycle of olive trees and harsh weather con­di­tions dur­ing flow­er­ing. Estimates sug­gest that the coun­try will pro­duce 310,000 tons of olive oil in the 2025/2026 sea­son, with con­cerns about ris­ing costs and finan­cial pres­sures affect­ing the sec­tor. Additionally, pro­duc­ers across Turkey are report­ing low yields, with weather con­di­tions and the unfa­vor­able exchange rate con­tribut­ing to the chal­lenges faced by the indus­try.

Turkey faces a sharply reduced olive oil cam­paign, with pro­duc­tion expected to fall well below last year’s record 475,000 tons.

Growers and offi­cials attribute the decline to the trees’ nat­ural bien­nial cycle and unusu­ally harsh weather dur­ing flow­er­ing, which dam­aged fruit set across major pro­duc­ing regions.

“The 2025/26 National Olive and Olive Oil Harvest Forecast and Assessment Committee has deter­mined that Turkey will pro­duce 310,000 tons of olive oil and 740,000 tons of table olives in the 2025/2026 pro­duc­tion sea­son,” said Mustafa Tan, chair­man of the Turkish National Olive and Olive Oil Council (UZZK). ​“As in all coun­tries, these esti­mates may be revised as the har­vest pro­gresses and con­cludes.”

Tan noted that early-sea­son dam­age from cold weather and drought began to ease after October’s con­sis­tent rain­fall. ​“As the olives absorbed sud­den water, they grew larger, humid­ity increased, and the olive oil yield ratio began to range between 1/6 and 1/9,” he said.

He expects yields to improve as the har­vest advances. Factoring in remain­ing stocks and pro­jected out­put, he esti­mated that more than 500,000 tons of olive oil will be avail­able to Turkish pro­duc­ers and exporters by the end of the sea­son.

Still, Tan acknowl­edged that ris­ing costs and finan­cial pres­sures con­tinue to weigh on the sec­tor. ​“As in every coun­try, increas­ing pro­duc­tion costs and finan­cial dif­fi­cul­ties are neg­a­tively affect­ing pro­duc­ers, indus­tri­al­ists, and exporters,” he said. ​“The sec­tor is wait­ing for inter­est and help in every branch.”

The International Olive Council (IOC) pro­jected an even lower national yield in its October out­look, esti­mat­ing a range of 280,000 to 290,000 tons for 2025/26.

Some ana­lysts antic­i­pate a far deeper drop. Agriculture jour­nal­ist Ali Ekber Yıldırım reported that most pro­duc­ers, traders, and millers he inter­viewed expect between 150,000 and 180,000 tons. ​“One or two peo­ple sug­gested that with the recent rains, it could reach 200,000 tons,” he said.

Alper Alhat, chair­man of the Akhisar Commodity Exchange, also fore­cast pro­duc­tion below 200,000 tons, likely between 170,000 and 180,000 tons. ​“This year, the yield will be low but qual­ity will be high,” he noted.

Producers across Turkey cited severe weather as the dom­i­nant fac­tor behind the poor out­look. ​“A very harsh win­ter last year and the sum­mer drought have neg­a­tively impacted the olive yield,” said İsmail Şahin of Zagoda Olive Oil. ​“The yield this sea­son is very low, well below our expec­ta­tions. This low yield applies to all of Turkey, which will cause prices to rise.”

Şahin grows Arbequina and Trilye olives on his fam­ily farm in Manisa, one of the coun­try’s main pro­duc­ing areas. He said the unfa­vor­able exchange rate — where the Turkish lira con­tin­ues to lag behind infla­tion — has fur­ther eroded pro­duc­ers’ com­pet­i­tive­ness. ​“This will make it very dif­fi­cult for Turkish olive oil to com­pete with olive oils from other coun­tries in inter­na­tional mar­kets,” he said.

In Mut, a major pro­duc­ing zone in Mersin province with 10 mil­lion olive trees and 21 mills, expec­ta­tions are sim­i­larly sub­dued. ​“This year, our olive yield is very low due to the weather con­di­tions,” said local pro­ducer Mehmet Çaltı.

Mut Agricultural Chamber chair­man Muharrem Yılmaz said the region will likely pro­duce around 10,000 tons of olive oil — down from more than 30,000 tons in abun­dant years — due to insuf­fi­cient rain­fall.

Further west in Aydın, pro­duc­ers expect a sharp decline from last year’s vol­umes. The com­bi­na­tion of low yields and price insta­bil­ity, they said, has made the sea­son par­tic­u­larly dif­fi­cult.

From his groves in Muğla’s Milas dis­trict, Mark Colin of Oro di Milas reported the same pat­tern: lower out­put but promis­ing qual­ity. ​“The incon­sis­tent weather — early heat, long dry spells, and winds that came at the wrong time — reduced the fruit set,” he said. ​“High-moun­tain, non-irri­gated groves feel these stresses even more.”

“But at the same time, I expect remark­able qual­ity,” he added. ​“The olives that remain on the trees this year are strong, aro­matic, and vibrant. Our trees live purely on rain­wa­ter and the strength of the rocky, min­eral-rich soil. This gives our oils a unique inten­sity, but it also makes us more vul­ner­a­ble to cli­mate shifts.”

Colin said that beyond cli­mate pres­sure, pro­duc­ers in Milas face another grow­ing threat: min­ing activ­ity. ​“My biggest emo­tional and envi­ron­men­tal con­cern this sea­son has been the min­ing activ­ity approach­ing dan­ger­ously close to my groves,” he said. ​“As an organic pro­ducer, the idea of indus­trial expan­sion near these ancient trees is heart­break­ing. These groves are part of the iden­tity of Milas.”

The con­cern fol­lows a con­tro­ver­sial law passed this sum­mer per­mit­ting the use of forests and farm­land for min­ing oper­a­tions. The mea­sure des­ig­nates 23,000 hectares in Milas — about one-tenth of the dis­trict — as essen­tial lig­nite-min­ing areas. The region is widely known for its olive groves and is home to Milas olive oil, one of just three Turkish olive oils with Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) sta­tus in the European Union.

Colin added that wild­fires and erratic weather remain per­sis­tent dan­gers. ​“Every sum­mer we face the fear of wild­fires, espe­cially in the high moun­tains,” he said. ​“On top of that, ris­ing tem­per­a­tures and unpre­dictable rain­fall con­tinue to chal­lenge us as dry-farm­ers.”

“My goal is to honor Milas, pro­tect its olive groves, and share its excep­tional oils with the world,” he said. ​“If my work can help bring even a lit­tle more atten­tion to the beauty and impor­tance of this land, then I con­sider myself suc­cess­ful.”