World Nears 1.5°C Threshold as Three-Year Heat Streak Confirms Climate Shift
November 2025 was one of the warmest months on record, marking three consecutive years of exceptional global heat, with the global average surface temperature reaching 1.54°C above the pre-industrial level. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service estimates that the 2023 – 2025 period will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, highlighting the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate future temperature increases.
November 2025 was among the warmest months ever recorded, capping three consecutive years of exceptional global heat.
Last month, the global average surface temperature reached 1.54°C above the estimated 1850 – 1900 average used to define pre-industrial levels.
Latest data indicate that 2025 will rank among the three warmest years on record, matching 2023, the second-warmest year, and trailing only 2024, which is considered the hottest year in modern history.
The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) estimates that average global temperatures during the 2023 – 2025 period will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Scientists say analyzing temperatures over a three-year period helps smooth short-term climate variability, making clear that record heat is not a temporary spike but a structural shift in global temperatures.
“These milestones are not abstract – they reflect the accelerating pace of climate change. The only way to mitigate future rising temperatures is to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at C3S.
Following the release of the Copernicus data, the European Union’s Council and Parliament agreed on the European Commission’s target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels.
According to the Council, the agreement refines flexibility around carbon credits and removals, strengthens principles for a fair and competitive post-2030 climate framework, and reinforces progress reviews that could trigger additional measures.
“Today, Europe has united around our clear direction for climate policy – based in science and protecting our security and competitiveness,” said Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s minister for climate, energy and utilities.
While the European Union is advancing its climate agenda, tackling climate change remains deeply divisive worldwide.
The recent United Nations Climate Change Conference COP30 highlighted how dozens of countries continue to support the use of the most significant sources of global emissions.
Approaches to climate policy vary widely among the world’s largest polluters.
China has pledged to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060, and it recently submitted its first absolute greenhouse-gas reduction target for 2035.
China’s clean-power rollout is accelerating rapidly, with wind, solar and storage installations surpassing many 2030 benchmarks years ahead of schedule, while electric-vehicle adoption continues to reshape transport emissions.
At the same time, China remains the world’s largest consumer of coal, with coal-fired capacity expanding to ensure energy security during periods of peak demand.
The United States aims to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and to reach economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050.
Federal support for clean technologies has expanded in recent years, particularly through incentives for renewable energy, electric vehicles and domestic manufacturing. Solar, grid-storage and wind installations have accelerated, while coal generation has fallen to its lowest share in decades.
However, national emissions remain off track to meet the 2030 target. Natural gas continues to dominate the power mix, and transportation emissions have proven difficult to reduce.
Recent regulatory rollbacks and approvals for new oil and gas projects have added uncertainty. In the past few days, that uncertainty deepened as the Environmental Protection Agency began removing references to human-caused climate change from its website.
The 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels has carried particular significance since COP21, held in Paris in 2015.
Following that conference, 195 nations signed the Paris Agreement, committing to limit the rise in global surface temperatures.
Scientific literature presented by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that crossing the 1.5°C threshold would intensify climate impacts, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Researchers also showed that rising extreme heat is already disrupting food systems worldwide, threatening agriculture and food security, expanding wildfire seasons, straining water supplies and accelerating biodiversity loss.
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