Extreme Weather Fuels Volatility Across the Global Olive Oil Market

Summary

Extreme climate events are causing disruptions in the global olive oil market, leading to price volatility, trade tensions, and changes in traditional diets. Climate unpredictability is affecting olive tree health and production, causing stress for farmers and prompting the need for long-term strategies and investment to address the challenges.

Localized extreme climate events are increasingly triggering cascading effects across the global olive oil market, with irregular harvests feeding price volatility, trade tensions and subtle shifts in traditional diets.

“Recurring environmental issues are hurting olive trees and creating a cycle of uneven production that is difficult to manage,” Spiridon Anagnostopoulos, an agronomist and founder of the multi-awarded Ranis olive oil producer in Greece, told Olive Oil Times.

Researchers and policymakers need to shift focus from annual yield alone to long-term systemic indicators.- Walter Leal Filho, European School of Sustainability and Research at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences

The uncertainty is beginning to weigh on the sector’s long-term prospects. José Vicente Andreu, president of the Alicante farmers’ association Asaja Alicante, said, “Traditional crops such as almonds and olives are suffering highly stressful conditions,” adding that climate unpredictability is slowing generational renewal, as younger farmers see too little economic security to invest.

At a recent forum on “Emergencies and Technological Innovation to Mitigate Climate Change” in Alicante, Spain, growers and experts described how longer-term scenarios are already reshaping day-to-day decisions in the orchard.

Supply volatility is also disrupting trade flows, triggering abrupt price spikes and making markets harder to forecast for producers, distributors and consumers. As farm incomes become less reliable, rural communities face added pressure, accelerating depopulation in some areas.

“Current infrastructures are not adequate as a new climate sets in,” said Jorge Olcina, a climatologist and professor of Regional Geographical Analysis at the University of Alicante. “A warmer Mediterranean accumulates more energy, and more extreme events follow,” he warned, arguing that “single solutions no longer work” and that the sector needs long-term strategies backed by science and sustained investment.

The challenges facing the olive crop have become a growing focus for climatologists and agricultural researchers worldwide.

“The olive tree is a key climate-sensitive indicator species for Mediterranean agroecosystems, reflecting broader ecosystem health and socio-economic stability,” said Walter Leal Filho, professor at the European School of Sustainability and Research at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences and co-author of a recent study on the subject.

Temperature changes affect olive trees throughout the year, Leal Filho said. “Olive trees require specific winter chilling and summer heat thresholds. Extreme heat during flowering and intense droughts directly reduce yields,” he explained, adding that these pressures can make trees more sensitive than many other hardy perennials.

Researchers involved in the E.U.-funded Oleario project warned that “the most extreme scenarios in the Mediterranean area predict an increase of about five degrees Celsius by the end of the 21^st century if mitigation targets are not met.”

Those conditions can place trees under severe physiological stress as limited moisture combines with prolonged heat and intense sunlight. The risks are compounded by more frequent extremes — heatwaves, floods, hailstorms and wildfires — alongside increasingly unstable seasonal patterns tied to climate change.

As the number of sub-zero days is expected to decline and hot days become more common, some models suggest climatically suitable conditions for olive cultivation could expand modestly northward and toward higher elevations.

“Today, the areas best suited to olive trees are mainly low- to mid-hill zones, with slopes largely exposed to the south and southwest,” Massimiliano Bordoni, an associate professor in Engineering Geology at the University of Pavia, told Olive Oil Times. Bordoni co-authored a recently published study that analyzed climate-driven changes in suitability for olive cultivation in the Oltrepò Pavese area of northern Italy.

“In the future, slopes with greater northern exposure and at higher elevations could also become suitable for cultivation,” Bordoni said, cautioning that outcomes remain uncertain because multiple variables must be considered. Across the scenarios examined, temperature emerged as the dominant driver, while soil type and the crop’s links to land degradation will also need to be factored into future assessments.

Leal Filho said modeling points to a possible expansion of climatically suitable territory by as much as 20 percent in some regions. “A northward shift is emerging, driven by severe heat and drought in the south and new suitable thermal niches appearing in northern Italy, southern France and the Balkans,” he said.

At the same time, regions historically central to olive cultivation are under mounting pressure. In Jordan, widely considered the cradle of the olive tree since ancient times, the impacts are now a prominent topic as growers work to adapt.

“Production is expected to decrease by an average of 30 to 40 percent due to poor rainfall and the impacts of climate change, including drought and high temperatures during the flowering and fruit-setting stages,” Lawrence Majali, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Agriculture, recently said.

Anagnostopoulos described similar conditions in Greece. “Extreme heat and wind during the flowering stage are hindering proper pollination,” he said. For some varieties, including Patrini, high heat can cause flowers to drop entirely, leading to a total loss for the year. Heavy rain can also disrupt pollination, he added, since olive trees rely on wind to spread pollen.

He also warned that warmer winters are enabling harmful insects and diseases to survive year-round, increasing damage to fruit and sharpening the threat from pests.

Water availability is another constraint. Longer dry spells are forcing more frequent irrigation, driving up costs and, in some areas, colliding with scarce supplies, Anagnostopoulos said — a challenge becoming more common amid Mediterranean drought conditions.

Even as growers grapple with intensifying risks, researchers note that olive farming can also help address these risks. Recent work has highlighted the crop’s potential to capture carbon dioxide, alongside broader sustainability findings suggesting its role in climate-smart agriculture.

Leal Filho said there is no single fix, but the science increasingly points to actionable steps. “Efficient irrigation, soil management and varietal replacement are key,” he said, adding that adaptation will differ by geography: southern regions need drought survival strategies, while potential expansion zones will require frost protection and careful varietal selection.

“The most urgent strategies for the next five to ten years are the widespread adoption of water-saving irrigation and soil moisture conservation techniques, alongside the planting of more drought-tolerant olive varieties,” he said. “These are actionable now.”

Anagnostopoulos agreed that science-led approaches are becoming central to modern olive farming. “Only through science and the right farming practices can we talk about sustainable development in the olive oil sector,” he said, adding that research-based methods can help manage both biotic and abiotic stress while supporting high-quality outcomes.

He pointed to orchard-level interventions, including the use of beneficial microorganisms that form symbiotic relationships with olive trees, improving nutrition and supporting antioxidant activity. His farm has also adopted technologies based on natural products designed to help trees better express their genetic potential under heat and moisture stress, he said, describing tools that function as biofertilizers and biostimulants.

Still, Leal Filho said several impacts require deeper evaluation — and faster recognition by decision-makers. “Critical gaps exist. For instance, policymakers and many in the olive oil trade underestimate systemic risk,” he said, referring to interconnected climate, agronomic, economic and policy failures that can amplify vulnerabilities across olive oil production systems.

He added that gastronomy has been slow to adjust and “remains largely unprepared to handle volatile supply,” while agricultural extension services still lag in disseminating climate-smart practices.

“Researchers and policymakers need to shift focus from annual yield alone to long-term systemic indicators,” Leal Filho said, arguing that resilience is better captured in multi-year trends in tree mortality, groundwater sustainability and soil organic matter than in a single strong harvest.

He warned that the highest-stakes delays may be structural. “The strategy most at risk of fatal delay is the systematic, long-term breeding and certification of new, resilient cultivars, which can take decades,” he said, adding that geographic shifts in production and supply chain restructuring also require long lead times. “Delaying planning will leave regions unprepared when current systems reach their climatic breaking point.”

Extreme Weather Fuels Volatility Across the Global Olive Oil Market

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