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Spanish olive oil proÂducÂtion has douÂbled in the last decade, with Spain curÂrently proÂducÂing 46 perÂcent of the world’s olive oil, but ongoÂing drought and cliÂmate change may threaten the counÂtry’s posiÂtion as a global leader in this indusÂtry. Italy and Greece have already seen sigÂnifÂiÂcant drops in olive oil proÂducÂtion due to cliÂmate change, and Spain may face a simÂiÂlar fate if water scarcity and risÂing temÂperÂaÂtures conÂtinue to impact olive groves in the region.
Spanish olive oil outÂput has douÂbled in the last ten years, but ongoÂing drought and cliÂmate change may mean a setÂback for the global leader in ​‘liqÂuid gold’ proÂducÂtion.
Spain proÂduces 46 perÂcent of the world’s olive oil, a total that has increased from 28 perÂcent in 2002. However, it is now being sugÂgested that the counÂtry’s proÂducÂtion may fall to the same fate as felÂlow olive oil proÂducÂing powÂerÂhouses Greece and Italy due to the effects of cliÂmate change. Italy has seen a drop of 50 perÂcent in proÂducÂtion since 2001 and Greece has also seen its annual proÂducÂtion levÂels decline by half, with cliÂmate change thought to be an imporÂtant facÂtor.
The decline of proÂducÂtion in Italy and Greece has had a temÂporarÂily posÂiÂtive effect on Spain, which is now proÂducÂing twice the joint proÂducÂtion of Greece and Italy, hapÂpily fillÂing the gap in the marÂket. Olive oil is of huge imporÂtance to the Spanish agriÂculÂture secÂtor, and is one of the leadÂing agriÂculÂtural exports for the counÂtry. However, the curÂrent harÂvest in Spain will be a poor one, with a 40 perÂcent drop in proÂducÂtion due to drought, leadÂing to a huge leap in marÂket prices for olive oil.
This decreased level of proÂducÂtion may become comÂmonÂplace if conÂtinÂued scarcity of water and increased temÂperÂaÂtures start to effect groves in Spain, as they have elseÂwhere on an ongoÂing basis. While high temÂperÂaÂtures are optiÂmal for growth and develÂopÂment of olives, heavy rain is also necÂesÂsary to comÂplete the ripenÂing process.
Water scarcity affects every conÂtiÂnent and counÂtries such as Greece and Italy have already sufÂfered the devÂasÂtatÂing effects of drought, with olives dying at high temÂperÂaÂtures and from lack of water. In addiÂtion to the direct effects of a changÂing cliÂmate on the olive popÂuÂlaÂtion, variÂaÂtions in weather can also cause changes in other enviÂronÂmenÂtal facÂtors such as insects and disÂease. These may then influÂence the olive tree popÂuÂlaÂtion, an indiÂrect effect of changÂing cliÂmates.
Spanish researchers have already sugÂgested that a key area of Spanish olive oil proÂducÂtion in Catalonia, the Siurana DOP, may become unviÂable within 20 years due to these increasÂing temÂperÂaÂtures and water shortÂages. Spain is thought to be highly susÂcepÂtiÂble to cliÂmate change, with the Mediterranean Sea risÂing by eight cenÂtimeÂters in the last 50 years and an averÂage increase in temÂperÂaÂture of 0.028 degrees Celsius per year. Studies have shown that the flowÂerÂing period of olives trees is highly depenÂdent on the yearly spring temÂperÂaÂtures, which are risÂing steadily over time.
If Spain is to conÂtinue its supremacy as an olive oil proÂducÂing nation, new and innoÂvÂaÂtive irriÂgaÂtion alterÂnaÂtives will have to be creÂated to comÂbat the conÂstantly changÂing cliÂmate. This is no easy task howÂever, as increasÂing irriÂgaÂtion can have negÂaÂtive effects on water supÂplies for the area, leadÂing to desert-like areas and water shortÂages for other purÂposes, as has preÂviÂously been seen in Greece, Italy and Portugal when irriÂgaÂtion demands increased.