European Olive Oil Exports Bounce Back

Summary

European olive oil exports to the United States, Canada, China, and Australia increased by 25 per­cent dur­ing the 2024/25 crop year due to higher pro­duc­tion and lower prices, as reported by the European Commission. However, the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development warned of a poten­tial decrease in the 2025/26 har­vest due to hot weather in Spain and Portugal, with E.U. coun­tries expected to pro­duce 2.1 mil­lion tons of olive oil in 2024/25, a sig­nif­i­cant increase over the pre­vi­ous year.

European olive oil exports to the United States, Canada, China and Australia grew by 25 per­cent dur­ing the 2024/25 crop year.

According to the lat­est short-term out­look report pub­lished by the European Commission, the trend is attrib­uted to both increased pro­duc­tion across the European Union and lower prices.

Still, the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development warned that the 2025/26 crop year may result in a lower har­vest than antic­i­pated.

“The ini­tially favor­able prospects of 2025/26 E.U. olive oil pro­duc­tion, which will start in October, might be ham­pered due to recently observed hot weather in Spain and Portugal,” the report said.

In 2024/25, E.U. coun­tries are expected to pro­duce 2.1 mil­lion tons of olive oil, a 37 per­cent increase over the pre­vi­ous cam­paign and 15 per­cent above the five-year aver­age.

Among the main pro­duc­ing coun­tries, only Italy will con­clude the cam­paign with a yield 25 per­cent lower than last sea­son.

Spain, the bloc’s top pro­ducer, is fore­cast to reach 1.4 mil­lion tons, a 66 per­cent increase com­pared to the pre­vi­ous cam­paign.

Production is also expected to rise in Greece by 43 per­cent (250,000 tons) and in Portugal by ten per­cent (177,000 tons).

The surge in pro­duc­tion has sig­nif­i­cantly impacted prices. Since January 2024, extra vir­gin olive oil prices in Spain have halved, drop­ping from €9.03 per liter to €3.50, below the five-year aver­age.

In con­trast, the com­mis­sion believes lim­ited avail­abil­ity in Italy has kept prices high.

Brussels noted that a surge in exports to the United States dur­ing the cur­rent cam­paign appears to be a reac­tion to the unpre­dictabil­ity of U.S. trade pol­icy.

E.U. olive oil imports are also expected to rise by 15 per­cent, reach­ing approx­i­mately 240,000 tons.

The report indi­cates that increased avail­abil­ity has sup­pressed demand for for­eign olive oil in key pro­duc­ing coun­tries, such as Spain. 

Still, imports from Tunisia, Europe’s lead­ing trad­ing part­ner, are set to rise, par­tic­u­larly due to declin­ing vol­umes in Italy.

Tunisian exports could reach 110,000 tons by the end of the crop year, with more than 58,000 tons des­tined for Italy and around 44,000 tons for Spain.

The report also notes that E.U. olive oil con­sump­tion is expected to rebound to 1.4 mil­lion tons in 2024/2025, align­ing with the five-year aver­age.

Interestingly, most of the con­sump­tion growth is expected in pro­duc­ing coun­tries, where record-high prices in 2022 and 2023 had led to reduced house­hold pur­chases and intense debate.

At the end of 2023, the com­mis­sion had fore­cast stag­nant or declin­ing pro­duc­tion and con­sump­tion trends over the com­ing decade within the European Union.

According to the report, end­ing stocks for the 2024/25 crop year are pro­jected to exceed 450,000 tons, com­pared to just over 350,000 tons the pre­vi­ous year and under 300,000 tons in 2023/24.

In Italy, end­ing stocks will reach 80,000 tons, 7,100 tons below the ten-year aver­age. Spain’s end­ing stocks will total 271,000 tons, well above the pre­vi­ous campaign’s 186,000 tons, though still below the ten-year aver­age of 371,700 tons.