`Global Olive Oil Production Expected to Slip to 2.9M Tons - Olive Oil Times

Global Olive Oil Production Expected to Slip to 2.9M Tons

By Daniel Dawson
May. 23, 2022 13:58 UTC

Global olive oil pro­duc­tion is expected to fall to 2.9 mil­lion tons in the 2022/23 crop year, accord­ing to the lat­est esti­mates pub­lished by the United States Department of Agriculture.

According to USDA data, pro­duc­tion will fall by 11 per­cent com­pared to the pre­vi­ous crop year and fin­ish 8 per­cent below the rolling five-year aver­age.

The USDA attrib­uted the pro­duc­tion decrease to the antic­i­pa­tion of smaller olive har­vests in the European Union, Morocco, Turkey and Tunisia. USDA econ­o­mists mainly attrib­uted the decrease to the nat­ural alter­nate bear­ing cycle of the olive tree.

See Also:2022 Harvest Updates

Along with pro­duc­tion, the USDA also expects global olive oil con­sump­tion to decrease by 7 per­cent due to lower sup­plies. The depart­ment added that the decline will likely be observed in the most price-sen­si­tive coun­tries.

However, domes­tic con­sump­tion is expected to remain strong in the European Union, which the USDA esti­mated will account for half of total con­sump­tion. After the E.U., the United States is expected to be the sec­ond-largest con­sumer with a 13 per­cent share.

The USDA also expects global exports to decline by 11 per­cent, attribut­ing the drop in olive oil trade to lower yields in the largest pro­duc­ing coun­tries.

In the European Union, exports are fore­casted to fall by 75,000 tons to reach 825,000 tons in the 2022/23 crop year. Exports from Tunisia and Turkey are also expected to decline to 70,000 tons and 56,000 tons, respec­tively.

Logically, global imports also are expected to fall. E.U. imports are pro­jected to drop 25,000 tons to fin­ish at 175,000 tons. However, U.S. imports are expected to remain steady at 375,000 tons.

With pro­duc­tion, exports and imports falling faster than con­sump­tion, global end­ing stocks are once again expected to tighten.

E.U. end­ing stocks are fore­cast to fall to a six-year low at 301,000 tons. Previous dips in the E.U. end­ing stocks have resulted in higher prices for pro­duc­ers in the 27-mem­ber bloc.

Looking at the sec­tor more broadly, the USDA antic­i­pates global oilseed pro­duc­tion to rise in 2022/23, despite the short­age of sun­flower oil result­ing from the Russian inva­sion of Ukraine.

Bumper canola oil crops in Canada and the European Union com­bined with strong soy­bean pro­duc­tion in South America means plenty of seed and veg­etable oils will be able to fill the void left by Ukrainian and Russian sun­flower seed oil out­put.

Production esti­mates for the 2022/23 crop year from the International Olive Council are expected in November.

USDA data is col­lected from a com­bi­na­tion of open sources and inter­views with gov­ern­ment offi­cials and agri­cul­tural asso­ci­a­tions. USDA econ­o­mists fore­cast olive oil pro­duc­tion by first esti­mat­ing the amount of fruit that will be har­vested in each coun­try and mul­ti­ply­ing the fig­ure by the aver­age oil yield per­cent­age of the pre­vi­ous five sea­sons.


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