Early Data Points to Weaker Olive Oil Production Across Andalusia

Summary

Farmers and millers in Andalusia are expe­ri­enc­ing lower olive har­vests and reduced oil out­put in the 2025/26 crop year, with some areas report­ing up to a 30 per­cent decrease in pro­duc­tion. Despite improved tree health from recent rain­fall, olive oil yields are not expected to increase sig­nif­i­cantly, lead­ing to frus­tra­tion among pro­duc­ers as far­m­gate prices con­tinue to decline.

Farmers and millers across the world’s largest olive oil-pro­duc­ing region are report­ing lower olive har­vests and reduced oil out­put in the open­ing months of the 2025/26 crop year than pre­vi­ously expected.

The Andalusian chap­ter of the Coordinator of Farmers’ and Ranchers’ Organizations (COAG) said olive har­vests are about 30 per­cent lower in irri­gated olive groves, where har­vest­ing is most advanced.

The orga­ni­za­tion cau­tioned that it is still too early to assess results in non-irri­gated olive orchards, which account for roughly 70 per­cent of Andalusia’s total olive-grow­ing area.

In Córdoba, the Association of Young Farmers (Asaja) added to spec­u­la­tion that Spanish olive oil pro­duc­tion may fall below the ear­lier-sea­son fore­cast of 1.3 mil­lion met­ric tons. The country’s sec­ond-largest olive oil-pro­duc­ing province has pro­duced 21 per­cent less olive oil so far in 2025/26 com­pared to the same point last sea­son.

“The rains in the final weeks of November slowed the har­vest, but at the same time helped improve the over­all con­di­tion of the olive groves after months of drought,” Asaja Córdoba said. ​“Despite the rain­fall and improved tree health, oil yields will barely increase, as the fruit had already formed most of its oil before the rains arrived.”

According to the asso­ci­a­tion, Córdoba has pro­duced 47,884 met­ric tons of olive oil since early October, com­pared to 60,657 tons at the same stage of the 2024/25 cam­paign. Nationally, Spain has pro­duced 293,197 tons of olive oil so far in the 2025/26 crop year.

COAG Andalusia also reported that three munic­i­pal­i­ties in west­ern Jaén, Spain’s largest olive oil-pro­duc­ing province, expect har­vest vol­umes to be about half of last year’s, with sim­i­lar oil yields.

In Granada, the orga­ni­za­tion said irri­gated olive groves are car­ry­ing around 30 per­cent less fruit than a typ­i­cal har­vest, while non-irri­gated groves are down by as much as 70 per­cent.

Farmers in Málaga reported a nor­mal fruit load but noted that olives are smaller than usual due to pro­longed drought, lead­ing to expec­ta­tions of lower oil yields.

Despite mount­ing evi­dence that olive oil pro­duc­tion will fall short of both last year’s results and ear­lier pro­jec­tions, many pro­duc­ers remain frus­trated as far­m­gate prices con­tinue to decline.

According to the Andalusian regional government’s price obser­va­tory, extra vir­gin olive oil prices at ori­gin fell from €5,130 per met­ric ton in the final week of November to €4,778 per ton by mid-December.

Separate fig­ures from Infaoliva’s price obser­va­tory indi­cate that prices remain slightly higher than in December 2024.

“The drop in prices is not jus­ti­fied by the mar­ket sit­u­a­tion,” said José Luis García-Lomas Hernández, chair of eco­nom­ics, mar­ket­ing and olive oil coop­er­a­tivism at the University of Jaén.

Instead, he attrib­uted the decline pri­mar­ily to ​“the man­age­ment of expec­ta­tions within the sec­tor and a lack of coor­di­na­tion among pro­duc­ers.”