Early Data Points to Weaker Olive Oil Production Across Andalusia

Farmers and millers across the world’s largest olive oil-producing region are reporting lower olive harvests and reduced oil output in the opening months of the 2025/26 crop year than previously expected.

The Andalusian chapter of the Coordinator of Farmers’ and Ranchers’ Organizations (COAG) said olive harvests are about 30 percent lower in irrigated olive groves, where harvesting is most advanced.

The organization cautioned that it is still too early to assess results in non-irrigated olive orchards, which account for roughly 70 percent of Andalusia’s total olive-growing area.

In Córdoba, the Association of Young Farmers (Asaja) added to speculation that Spanish olive oil production may fall below the earlier-season forecast of 1.3 million metric tons. The country’s second-largest olive oil-producing province has produced 21 percent less olive oil so far in 2025/26 compared to the same point last season.

“The rains in the final weeks of November slowed the harvest, but at the same time helped improve the overall condition of the olive groves after months of drought,” Asaja Córdoba said. “Despite the rainfall and improved tree health, oil yields will barely increase, as the fruit had already formed most of its oil before the rains arrived.”

According to the association, Córdoba has produced 47,884 metric tons of olive oil since early October, compared to 60,657 tons at the same stage of the 2024/25 campaign. Nationally, Spain has produced 293,197 tons of olive oil so far in the 2025/26 crop year.

COAG Andalusia also reported that three municipalities in western Jaén, Spain’s largest olive oil-producing province, expect harvest volumes to be about half of last year’s, with similar oil yields.

In Granada, the organization said irrigated olive groves are carrying around 30 percent less fruit than a typical harvest, while non-irrigated groves are down by as much as 70 percent.

Farmers in Málaga reported a normal fruit load but noted that olives are smaller than usual due to prolonged drought, leading to expectations of lower oil yields.

Despite mounting evidence that olive oil production will fall short of both last year’s results and earlier projections, many producers remain frustrated as farmgate prices continue to decline.

According to the Andalusian regional government’s price observatory, extra virgin olive oil prices at origin fell from €5,130 per metric ton in the final week of November to €4,778 per ton by mid-December.

Separate figures from Infaoliva’s price observatory indicate that prices remain slightly higher than in December 2024.

“The drop in prices is not justified by the market situation,” said José Luis García-Lomas Hernández, chair of economics, marketing and olive oil cooperativism at the University of Jaén.

Instead, he attributed the decline primarily to “the management of expectations within the sector and a lack of coordination among producers.”

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