`Spain’s Olive Oil Market Expected to Stabilize - Olive Oil Times

Spain’s Olive Oil Market Expected to Stabilize

Dec. 18, 2015
Erin Ridley

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These last cou­ple of months have been a roller coaster of spec­u­la­tion regard­ing Spain’s cur­rent and com­ing year of olive oil pro­duc­tion. Average pro­duc­tion lev­els, low reserves, atyp­i­cal weather, and inex­plic­a­bly low prices have all con­tributed to the uncertainty.
See Also: Complete Coverage of the 2015 Olive Harvest
Now, how­ever, experts say that Spain’s olive oil mar­ket should sta­bi­lize come har­vest end. During the XXIII Jornada de Olivar, an event put on by ASAJA-Sevilla and pre­sented to over 200 olive grow­ers, the con­ven­ing experts agreed that, while Spain is set to pro­duce more olive oil this year, demand should meet the higher num­bers since the sea­son began with almost no reserves.

The International Olive Council agrees, pre­dict­ing world olive oil pro­duc­tion to reach 2,988,500 tons, an increase of 22 per­cent over last year, and a con­sump­tion of 2,989,000 tons, an increase of 5 per­cent. So the con­sen­sus is that pro­duc­tion in Spain and the rest of the world should be right in line with meet­ing global demand.

For this rea­son,” ASAJA-Sevilla added, the final con­sump­tion will be slightly above the fore­casted pro­duc­tion of the cur­rent har­vest, which, accord­ing to the IOC, will be an aver­age sea­son at a global level, and one that won’t gen­er­ate reserves.”

The fact that it may not gen­er­ate reserves goes back to an ongo­ing con­cern about this year’s seem­ingly sat­is­fy­ing, albeit aver­age, Spanish har­vest. Indeed, even though the coun­try is expected to meet this year’s demand, it will very pos­si­bly end up with lit­tle stock. A prob­lem made even big­ger given that, if dry and warm weather per­sist, the next sea­son could be a low-pro­duc­ing one. 

So, while the out­look is good for this sea­son, the market’s sta­bil­ity next sea­son is hardly as certain.

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