Global Olive Oil Consumption Forecast to Climb, Led by U.S., China, Brazil
Global olive oil conÂsumpÂtion is expected to increase by 3.2 perÂcent in 2011/12, with proÂducÂtion foreÂcasted to be nearly 3.08 milÂlion tons, driÂven by growth in China, Russia, Japan, Canada, and Brazil. Despite falling conÂsumpÂtion in the EU’s eight proÂducer counÂtries, world proÂducÂtion is proÂjected to rise by 3 perÂcent in 2011/12.
Global olive oil conÂsumpÂtion will climb a furÂther 3.2 perÂcent in 2011/12, enough to soak up total proÂducÂtion, foreÂcast to be nearly 3.08 milÂlion tons, accordÂing to the International Olive Council’s November newsletÂter.
And that growth won’t come from the EU’s eight proÂducer counÂtries, because their overÂall conÂsumpÂtion is falling. However, comÂpared with 2008/09, olive oil conÂsumpÂtion grew by 50 perÂcent in China, 47 perÂcent in Russia, 35 perÂcent in Japan, 23 perÂcent in Canada and 20 perÂcent in Brazil last year.
Olive Oil Production
In its approved figÂures for 2009/10, the IOC reports that the crop year opened with 669,500 tons in global carry-over stocks and closed with 740,000 tons. World proÂducÂtion reached 2.97 milÂlion tons, up 11.4 perÂcent on the preÂviÂous seaÂson. Of this, Spain proÂduced 1.4 milÂlion tons, folÂlowed by Italy with 430,000 tons.
World proÂducÂtion for 2010/11 is proÂviÂsionÂally assessed at 3.018 milÂlion tons, up 1.5 perÂcent, and foreÂcast to rise another 3 perÂcent in 2011/12.
Consumption
Overall, the world conÂsumed 2.90 milÂlion tones of olive oil in 2009/10 — a 2 perÂcent increase on the seaÂson before and 5 perÂcent higher than the averÂage of the last four crop years. The EU/27 accounted for 64 perÂcent of total conÂsumpÂtion and the U.S. 9 perÂcent.
Provisional figÂures sugÂgest global conÂsumpÂtion conÂtinÂues to increase, up 3 perÂcent in 2010/11 to reach 2.98 milÂlion tons. Among IOC non-memÂber counÂtries, conÂsumpÂtion growth this year is expected to total 8.5 perÂcent, driÂven by the USA, China, Brazil and Canada.
Imports
World imports totalled 652,000 tons in 2009/10, of which the US took 40 perÂcent , Brazil 8 perÂcent, Canada and Japan 6 perÂcent each, and China and Russia 3 perÂcent each. Exports came to 653,000 tons, up 7 perÂcent.
In the twelve-month from October to September this year, imports increased into Brazil (20 perÂcent), Canada (5 perÂcent) and the USA (7 perÂcent) comÂpared to the same period a year before, but fell 12 perÂcent in Japan.
Data for Australia and the EU data were not yet availÂable for September, but the figÂures for the first eleven months reveal a 9 perÂcent drop in Australian imports and a 12 perÂcent rise in EU imports.
Producer prices
Prices in Italy have recently fallen sharply after reachÂing a record of €3.92/kg in week 20 of the curÂrent proÂducÂtion year. They have now plateaued at the same level they were from February to October 2010.
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