`Global Olive Oil Consumption Forecast to Climb, Led by U.S., China, Brazil - Olive Oil Times

Global Olive Oil Consumption Forecast to Climb, Led by U.S., China, Brazil

Dec. 14, 2011
Julie Butler

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Global olive oil con­sump­tion will climb a fur­ther 3.2 per­cent in 2011/12, enough to soak up total pro­duc­tion, fore­cast to be nearly 3.08 mil­lion tons, accord­ing to the International Olive Council’s November newslet­ter.

And that growth won’t come from the EU’s eight pro­ducer coun­tries, because their over­all con­sump­tion is falling. However, com­pared with 2008/09, olive oil con­sump­tion grew by 50 per­cent in China, 47 per­cent in Russia, 35 per­cent in Japan, 23 per­cent in Canada and 20 per­cent in Brazil last year.

Olive Oil Production

In its approved fig­ures for 2009/10, the IOC reports that the crop year opened with 669,500 tons in global carry-over stocks and closed with 740,000 tons. World pro­duc­tion reached 2.97 mil­lion tons, up 11.4 per­cent on the pre­vi­ous sea­son. Of this, Spain pro­duced 1.4 mil­lion tons, fol­lowed by Italy with 430,000 tons.

World pro­duc­tion for 2010/11 is pro­vi­sion­ally assessed at 3.018 mil­lion tons, up 1.5 per­cent, and fore­cast to rise another 3 per­cent in 2011/12.

Consumption
Overall, the world con­sumed 2.90 mil­lion tones of olive oil in 2009/10 — a 2 per­cent increase on the sea­son before and 5 per­cent higher than the aver­age of the last four crop years. The EU/27 accounted for 64 per­cent of total con­sump­tion and the U.S. 9 per­cent.

Provisional fig­ures sug­gest global con­sump­tion con­tin­ues to increase, up 3 per­cent in 2010/11 to reach 2.98 mil­lion tons. Among IOC non-mem­ber coun­tries, con­sump­tion growth this year is expected to total 8.5 per­cent, dri­ven by the USA, China, Brazil and Canada.

Imports

World imports totalled 652,000 tons in 2009/10, of which the US took 40 per­cent , Brazil 8 per­cent, Canada and Japan 6 per­cent each, and China and Russia 3 per­cent each. Exports came to 653,000 tons, up 7 per­cent.

In the twelve-month from October to September this year, imports increased into Brazil (20 per­cent), Canada (5 per­cent) and the USA (7 per­cent) com­pared to the same period a year before, but fell 12 per­cent in Japan.

Data for Australia and the EU data were not yet avail­able for September, but the fig­ures for the first eleven months reveal a 9 per­cent drop in Australian imports and a 12 per­cent rise in EU imports.

Producer prices

Prices in Italy have recently fallen sharply after reach­ing a record of €3.92/kg in week 20 of the cur­rent pro­duc­tion year. They have now plateaued at the same level they were from February to October 2010.



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