`USDA Predicts Global Olive Oil Production Decline - Olive Oil Times
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USDA Predicts Global Olive Oil Production Decline

By Daniel Dawson
May. 20, 2025 00:46 UTC
Summary Summary

The USDA pre­dicts a ten per­cent decrease in global olive oil pro­duc­tion for the 2025/26 crop year, with pro­duc­tion expected to fall to 3.016 mil­lion met­ric tons, par­tic­u­larly in the European Union and Turkey. Despite the USDA fore­cast, pro­duc­ers in Spain, Portugal, and Tunisia are opti­mistic about the upcom­ing har­vest due to favor­able weather con­di­tions and abun­dant flow­er­ing.

The United States Department of Agriculture fore­casts a ten per­cent decline in global olive oil pro­duc­tion in the com­ing 2025/26 crop year, which begins in October.

The USDA Foreign Agriculture Service econ­o­mists pre­dict that olive oil pro­duc­tion will fall to 3.016 mil­lion met­ric tons in 2024/25 from the 3.331 mil­lion tons in 2024/25.

The USDA antic­i­pated European Union olive oil pro­duc­tion to fall to 1.98 mil­lion tons in 2025/26 from 2.079 mil­lion tons in the pre­vi­ous crop year. 

See Also:2025 Harvest Updates

Olive oil pro­duc­tion in Turkey is also expected to fall to 275,000 tons from the record-high 450,000 tons in 2024/25. 

A sep­a­rate USDA report pub­lished in March fore­casted Tunisian olive oil pro­duc­tion to sink to 200,000 tons, ​“reflect­ing the alter­nat­ing high fruit bear­ing cycle which had high pro­duc­tion [340,000 tons] in 2024/25.” 

The agri­cul­ture depart­ment added that pro­duc­tion in the rest of the world is also likely to decline. 

The USDA’s pro­duc­tion fore­casts are based on a com­bi­na­tion of mar­ket intel­li­gence, cycli­cal and his­tor­i­cal trend data and weather assump­tions, which the agency updates in its monthly oilseed mar­kets and trade report.

However, pro­duc­ers in Spain said that con­di­tions have thus far been ideal, lead­ing up to the 2025/26 crop year. Still, the com­ing months will be crit­i­cal to deter­mine how well abun­dant flow­er­ing con­verts into a sig­nif­i­cant fruit set.

“We are hav­ing a year with very good weather,” Álvaro Olavarría, the man­ager of Andalusian coop­er­a­tive Oleoestepa, told Agropoular. ​“We are at a crit­i­cal stage of flow­er­ing, very advanced in some areas, even with fruit set, and there­fore, the over­all har­vest out­look in Spain is very good for the 2025/26 sea­son.”

According to one large bot­tling com­pany, olive oil pro­duc­tion in Spain could reach 1.6 mil­lion tons under ideal con­di­tions. Other pro­duc­ers across Spain have told Olive Oil Times that they expect another good har­vest in 2025/26.

“We’ve had a rainy win­ter, and spring is also bring­ing us very good rain. For now, every­thing points to the 2025/26 sea­son being bet­ter than the 2024/25 sea­son,” said Rosa López, the com­pany direc­tor of Aires de Jaén. ​“Even so, we must wait because we are always exposed to adverse weather con­di­tions.”

“We antic­i­pate a very good har­vest in terms of quan­tity and qual­ity, con­sid­er­ing the cur­rent con­di­tion of the olive trees,” added Luís Rubio, the export man­ager of Castilla-La Mancha-based Olivapalacios. 

Outside of Spain, Olavarría said cur­rent con­di­tions also point to ​“very good har­vest prospects for Tunisia next year,” in con­trast to the USDA’s fore­cast. 

Yahya Chemli, co-founder of Olyfo, which has 300 hectares of olive groves in north­ern and east­ern Tunisia, sees signs that the har­vest could be fruit­ful.

“It’s too early to make pre­dic­tions, but we’ve had good rain­fall recently, and the flow­er­ing sea­son is going well,” he said. ​“It gives us hope for a strong har­vest, but we’re watch­ing closely.”

Olavarría added that he expects Portigal to ​“repeat and slightly improve this year’s pro­duc­tion. Greece is also expect­ing a very good har­vest next sea­son.”

Producers in Portugal have told Olive Oil Times that the con­di­tions in the olive groves have been excel­lent, includ­ing mild tem­per­a­tures and plenty of rain. However, the next few months are crit­i­cal. 

“The weather fore­cast shows mild tem­per­a­tures for the com­ing weeks, and con­di­tions look ideal for an ade­quate fruit set,” said Alberto Serralha, the chief exec­u­tive of Sociedade Agrícola Ouro Vegetal in cen­tral Portugal. ​“Our reser­voirs are over­flow­ing, so there won’t be a lack of water for irri­ga­tion this year.”

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